According to my analysis, the Chinese central bank owned 4,309 tonnes of gold on December 31, 2022, which is more than double than what is officially disclosed. My estimate would make China the second largest gold reserve country after the US. The Chinese private sector holds 23,745 tonnes, bringing the total amount of gold in China to 28,054 tonnes.
Poor analysis. China probably has more than 20 thousand tons and the US reserves are anybody's guess, but most likely less than the official amount, unaudited now for eons. With Russia about 12t.
That's even better than the nuke option. Kiss your $ goodbye!
Another factor which I don't think you mentioned (I may have missed it) is that the PBOC likes to buy 12.5kg bars, which I gather do not trade on the SGE.
It's also possible and indeed likely that of the domestic production and imports, a large portion went to other state bodies, not just private hands.
Thanks for your comment Dominic. The 12.5 kg contract didn’t trade for years, but has become active recently. I still need to research what that means (maybe foreign central banks buying on the SGE to convert offshore RMB). Likely other state bodies buy on the SGE, but I don’t know how to dissect those purchases.
I think over 50% of production is state owned. The army buys, the sovereign wealth fund and others, so I think a not unreasonable estimate for all the gold entering or produced in China is 50:50 between state and private
Poor analysis. China probably has more than 20 thousand tons and the US reserves are anybody's guess, but most likely less than the official amount, unaudited now for eons. With Russia about 12t.
That's even better than the nuke option. Kiss your $ goodbye!
Thanks Jan. Great analysis.
Another factor which I don't think you mentioned (I may have missed it) is that the PBOC likes to buy 12.5kg bars, which I gather do not trade on the SGE.
It's also possible and indeed likely that of the domestic production and imports, a large portion went to other state bodies, not just private hands.
Thanks for your comment Dominic. The 12.5 kg contract didn’t trade for years, but has become active recently. I still need to research what that means (maybe foreign central banks buying on the SGE to convert offshore RMB). Likely other state bodies buy on the SGE, but I don’t know how to dissect those purchases.
I think over 50% of production is state owned. The army buys, the sovereign wealth fund and others, so I think a not unreasonable estimate for all the gold entering or produced in China is 50:50 between state and private
Why would the army buy gold?